On June 5, Fitch Ratings affirmed Azerbaijan’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at "BBB-" with a Stable Outlook, citing strong external buffers, low public debt, and significant sovereign wealth assets as key supporting factors. The agency emphasized that Azerbaijan’s very strong external position remains anchored by substantial foreign-currency reserves and sovereign wealth fund resources. It projected that higher oil prices, partly driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, would strengthen oil and gas revenues and increase sovereign foreign-currency assets to around USD 93 billion in 2026, equivalent to 117% of projected GDP. According to Fitch, roughly 84% of these assets are held by the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan, while the remainder is managed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Fitch also forecast that net sovereign foreign assets would rise to 73% of GDP in 2026, which it described as the highest level among "BBB" rated peers. The agency added that improved energy revenues, combined with moderate import growth, would push the current account surplus to about 9% of GDP in 2026, up from 4.6% in 2025, before easing in 2027 while still remaining comparatively strong.

On fiscal performance, the agency projected that Azerbaijan’s consolidated budget surplus would peak at around 5.6% of GDP in 2026, before narrowing in 2027 due to softer oil prices, steady spending levels, and moderate non-oil revenue growth. It noted that government expenditure priorities continue to focus on defense and reconstruction of recovered territories. Fitch further projected that economic growth in Azerbaijan would modestly accelerate to 2% in 2026 after a slowdown in 2025, while inflation is expected to rise to an average of 6.1% in 2026 compared with 5.6% a year earlier. The agency attributed inflationary pressures to higher logistics costs, rising food prices, and adjustments in administered prices, partially offset by currency dynamics involving the manat. The report also highlighted that Azerbaijan’s government debt is expected to remain low by international standards, at around 21% of GDP by 2027, among the lowest levels for investment-grade sovereigns rated by Fitch. External debt has reportedly declined in recent years, with future changes depending largely on infrastructure-related projects in water and transport sectors.

Fitch additionally noted a reduction in external guarantees following repayment of Eurobonds by the Southern Gas Corridor project, bringing them down to approximately USD 3 billion in early 2026. It also assessed Azerbaijan’s fiscal strategy for 2027–2030, which assumes an oil price of USD 65 per barrel and targets a gradual reduction in the non-oil primary deficit to 13% of GDP by 2029, compared with higher levels in previous years. The agency concluded that proposed improvements to fiscal rules, including tighter limits on changes to medium-term targets and reduced reliance on transfers from SOFAZ, could enhance policy predictability, reduce cyclical volatility, and support continued accumulation of sovereign external assets.