Mikheil Saakashvili, the imprisoned former President of Georgia, claimed on July 30 that Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, is preparing to partially recognize the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Saakashvili alleged this move is timed for the upcoming anniversary of the August 8, 2008, Georgia-Russia conflict. In a social media post, he asserted that a parliamentary commission investigating the "crimes of the Saakashvili regime" would accuse him of starting a "criminal war," creating a pretext for the de jure recognition of the occupied territories.

"Ivanishvili is preparing Georgia for Black August," Saakashvili wrote, describing recent arrests and persecutions as a distraction from "the main evil that the director of the Georgian mafia system intends to commit." According to Saakashvili, Ivanishvili's plan involves staging provocations, accusing political opponents of plotting an armed coup, arresting them, and shutting down their parties and television channels. He claimed that on August 7, Ivanishvili intends to deliver "a big gift" to his "patrons in the FSB" by blaming Georgia for the 2008 war, thereby paving the way for restoring diplomatic relations with Russia and partially recognizing the separatist regions. Saakashvili reiterated his denial of ordering the bombing of Tskhinvali, arguing the timing of these events mimics Russia’s 2008 strategy of acting while Western politicians are on vacation. "It should be emphasized that everything that is happening is part of a single plan of the Kremlin," he stated.