On November 12, S&P Global Ratings upgraded SOCAR’s long-term credit rating from "BB-" to "BB" due to improved financial policy, transparency, government support, and solid liquidity, while projecting continued stable oil and gas production and ongoing capital investments. "A clearer financial policy and improved transparency adds visibility to SOCAR's credit profile," S&P stated. "We revised our assessment of the company's governance and financial policy, which affected our view of its SACP, to ‘bb-' from ‘b'".

The agency emphasized that the stable outlook reflects expectations that SOCAR's liquidity will remain manageable due to sizable cash balances and cash flows covering near-term maturities, as well as continued solid government support. S&P also noted that no major delays, cost overruns, or operational issues are anticipated in the company's capital expenditure projects and core operations, and the company’s strong link with the government will remain unchanged.

In its base-case scenario, S&P forecasted SOCAR's adjusted FFO (Funds From Operations) to debt at 12%-15% in 2025-2027, rising above 20% when accounting for cash. S&P highlighted that the Shah Deniz Compression (SDC) project will increase Azerbaijan’s output by around 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 25 million barrels of gas condensate. The consortium made the final investment decision in June 2025, with total project costs estimated at $2.9 billion. SOCAR's oil production in 2025 is expected to remain at 2024 levels, producing 7-7.5 million tons of oil and 7-8.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. "SOCAR's own assets production in 2024 was of 7.5 million tons of oil and 7.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas," the statement reads.

According to S&P's baseline scenario, SOCAR’s capital expenditures in 2025-2027 will reach approximately 3 billion manats ($1.764 billion) annually, exceeding the figures of the past two years. S&P stated that they anticipate S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FFO to debt of 12%-15% in 2025-2027 and slightly above 20% if accounting for the cash. However, they anticipate relatively high investments of 3 billion manats per year, with positive FOCF (Free Operating Cash Flow) of about 1 billion manats ($588.2 million). S&P Global also projected Azerbaijan’s average annual inflation at 6% in 2025, 4.5% in 2026, and 4% in 2027, revising its earlier expectations of 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.