Although the regular parliamentary elections in Armenia are planned for the second half of next year (they will take place on June 7, 2026), the electoral campaign has, unofficially, already kicked off. Various political forces from both the ruling and opposition camps have become active. New parties and alliances are already being established, individual political figures are announcing their plans to participate in the elections, and regional meetings and visits are being carried out.

A tense rivalry between the opposition and the government is underway

The ruling “Civil Contract” party, led by acting PM Nikol Pashinyan, recently convened its 7th congress, thus, in fact, opening the electoral period. In his keynote speech during the congress, Pashinyan announced that his party wants to win the parliamentary elections to form a “Fourth Republic.” Its ideological basis, according to Pashinyan, will be the so-called "real Armenia," which he contrasts with "historical Armenia." In particular, the “Fourth Republic” will not be hostile to its neighbors, primarily Turkey and Azerbaijan, and seeks to join the European Union. For this purpose, Pashinyan pledged to hold a referendum to amend the Constitution of Armenia after a victory in the parliamentary elections.

It should be noted that the demand to change the current constitution of Armenia is the principal precondition for signing the final peace agreement, a demand brought forward by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, who argues that the text of the current Constitution of the Republic of Armenia contains claims to the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. In particular, the preamble refers to the Declaration of Independence, which refers to the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Among the opposition parliamentary forces, the second largest faction in the parliament, the opposition “Armenia” (Hayastan) parliamentary bloc, affiliated with the second president of the Republic of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, has already announced that it is preparing to take an “active and substantial” role in the elections.

Separate figures from the extra-parliamentary forces have already officially announced that they will participate in the 2026 parliamentary elections, in particular, former mayor Hayk Marutyan, who will participate with his "New Power" reformist party. Gagik Tsarukyan, chairman of the "Prosperous Armenia" party, and Artur Vanetsyan, head of the "Hayrenik" party, also announced their willingness to participate in the elections. The "Mother Armenia" movement, supported by the second President of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, formed a party of the same name ahead of the elections, led by former opposition candidate for mayor, Andranik Tevanyan.

Nevertheless, it will not be easy for the ruling party to secure re-election in 2026.

Decline in public trust, wave of repressions within the country

The local government elections held in March in Armenia's second-largest city, Gyumri, and in Parakar, one of Yerevan's largest communities, in which opposition representatives won, showed that trust in the ruling party has significantly decreased among the Armenian population.

The situation is further complicated by the formation of the "Mer Dzevov" (In Our Way) movement at the initiative of Russian-Armenian entrepreneur and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan, who recently submitted a political bid and was subsequently arrested in Yerevan. In the aftermath, his movement is gaining momentum, with a large number of people becoming members each day, and according to some sociological polls, it may take second place in the elections. The latest survey conducted by the Armenian representation of the GALLUP International Association records a sharp increase in the rating of the movement led by Karapetyan. 13.4 percent of respondents in a survey conducted in late August placed Samvel Karapetyan's movement in second place. This is an exceptionally high start for a movement that still has no electoral experience and is only in its formation phase. According to the same poll, the ruling Civil Contract party still maintains its leading position with 17.3 percent.

Parallel to all this, incidents of arrests of opposition figures and an apparent struggle against dissent are gaining momentum in the country. Extremely aggressive attacks against the Armenian Apostolic Church are being made by the Prime Minister himself, and high-ranking clergymen have been arrested. The imprisonment of Samvel Karapetyan, who dared to defend the church with his public speech, stirred emotions across much of society. According to the above-mentioned survey, 71.5% of the Armenian population believes that Samvel Karapetyan is a political prisoner, and 56.8% negatively assessed the imprisonment of Archbishops. The opposition leader of Armenia's Parakar rural community was killed a few days ago, which further inflamed public sentiment.

The other part of the parliamentary opposition, the Republican Party and its "With Honor" opposition faction, launched an initiative to impeach the Prime Minister and even held parliamentary hearings on this topic. And despite all this, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is confident that he will be re-elected in 2026. "I have great confidence that in the 2026 parliamentary elections, the people will extend the mandate given to us to govern Armenia, because the people are the authors of the peace agenda we are pursuing," Pashinyan said on September 29, at a briefing with Armenian journalists in Strasbourg.

Opposition is pessimistic

In a conversation with Caucasus Watch, when asked how they would characterize the pre-election situation in Armenia and whether the ruling power has a chance to be re-elected in 2026, Armenian opposition political and expert circles offered a negative assessment.

According to Aram Manukyan, an Armenian politician and former MP, and a board member of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) party, the Armenian authorities began their struggle for re-election very early and have launched it using very harsh methods, such as threatening and intimidating dissident clergy, community-elected opposition leaders, and potential candidates. According to Aram Manukyan, the authorities started the election marathon a year ago.

"The first example was the removal of the opposition mayor of Alaverdi, where council members were intimidated and blackmailed into giving up their mandates or calling a new session and voting for the government candidates, even though they had previously voted for opposition candidates. In the same way, a criminal case was initiated against the already-elected opposition mayor of Vanadzor city; he was imprisoned, and a temporary representative from the ruling party was appointed. And the most recent incident was the assassination of the opposition leader of the Parakar community near Yerevan, who was elected with a high percentage of votes. In other words, by using various methods, they intimidate elected opposition figures to prevent them from running for office again or entering the political contest,” Manukyan is sure.

The opposition politician is also convinced that in the 2026 elections, it will be very difficult for the opposition or small parties to take power in local self-government bodies or in the parliament, because the government has also changed the electoral system. It should be recalled that according to the new amendments to the Electoral Code, in the event of regular elections, the passing threshold for parties will be reduced from 5% to 4%, and the 7% threshold for alliances becomes 8% for two- and three-party alliances, and 10% for alliances of four or more parties. This will make it significantly more difficult for alliances to enter parliament and will push parties to run separately in the elections.

Aram Manukyan expresses concern that this overall situation can affect the elections very badly, because a general state of despair and apathy has emerged among the people, which may lead to low voter turnout. "In particular, the reduction of the army budget and the authorities' constant fulfillment of Turkey's and Azerbaijan's demands create a situation where people feel hopeless, weakened, and unable to do anything but put up with it. As a result of this general apathy, citizens are becoming passive; there is no enthusiasm or rebellion, and the government can take advantage of this situation and use administrative leverage to get re-elected, even with fewer votes.”

In response to our question, whether he sees any chance of success for the opposition under these conditions and what it would take for them to succeed in next year's elections, Aram Manukyan believes that, nevertheless, there are opposition political forces, though not very large, that are trying to resist. "We are trying to create an alliance with 6-7 such parties, which will include both political parties and well-known non-partisan figures; that is, to create a general opposition bloc or movement which includes those political forces and individuals who have no expectation of gaining positions or becoming deputies. Their main task will be to stop the ongoing losses in Armenia.”

Aram Manukyan reassures that this opposition bloc has set the task of presenting a more realistic peace plan, in contrast to the one written by the authorities, which, according to Manukyan, is merely a plan of concessions and fulfillment of Azerbaijan's demands. "I think that in order for the opposition to succeed, such a program should be presented that would make Armenia interesting and appealing to international organizations and major players in the region and not become a conflict zone. For instance, the currently proposed 'Trump Route' creates conflict for Russia and Iran. Whereas the proposals of the opposition forces should be such that the interests of Iran, Russia, Georgia, the West, and China do not clash, but instead, it is beneficial for each of them to have a transit route through Armenia. And the other thing, which is very important for us, is to have a balanced diplomacy with both the European Union and the United States, which should not exclude friendly relations with Iran, Russia, and China. A balanced diplomatic policy is the main strategy of our opposition,” the opposition figure claims.

In an interview with Caucasus Watch, Political scientist and board member of the "Mother Armenia" opposition party, Stepan Danielyan, also shares the opinion that the recent activity of the ruling “Civil Contract” party and the Prime Minister creates the impression that they have started their election campaign ahead of time: "The ruling party members and the Prime Minister admit in their public speeches that they are discussing the option of holding snap parliamentary elections, but they have not yet made a final decision on this issue," the political scientist believes.

To our question whether he sees any chance of the opposition succeeding, Mr. Danielyan does not have a particularly optimistic forecast. "In Armenia, it is inappropriate to talk about the opposition as a unified phenomenon. It is not ruled out that about two dozen parties and alliances will participate in the elections. The political system has collapsed, and many factions are trying to secure a position in the newly forming political landscape. Aside from the ruling party, the others can be called opposition, but some of them could, in case of success, become allies of the ruling “Civil Contract” party. Others may form an alliance against the “Civil Contract.” I think that these possible alliances will share the seats of the National Assembly approximately equally, and we will have an unstable parliament, and after a year, there will be snap elections again,” the political scientist predicts.

Conclusion

Following the current political developments taking place in Armenia, both in the opposition and in the government, it can be presumed that the current situation promises elections of great importance for the future of Armenia and its people. In any case, there is a great expectation that the 2026 elections will lay the foundation for a new system of governance. Any system that is a repetition of the old or a continuation of the existing one can only deepen public disillusionment.

After the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the most violent in the region, the Armenian public currently has one main expectation from the future government: security guarantees. The regional instability and high security risks surrounding Armenia could completely change the logic of domestic political developments, and the scenario of snap elections is not ruled out.

It should be noted that Armenia’s entire period of independence has been characterized more by political crises and tensions than by their absence, and it is already obvious that the 2026 parliamentary elections in Armenia will not be an easy one for either the opposition or the government, and a heated contest is expected. The 2026 elections in Armenia are also important for the entire region, in which Russia has recently lost its influence, and it is expected that Russia will also try to interfere in the Armenian elections as a last hope to consolidate its influence in the region.

Contributed by Anna Vardanyan, a political journalist-researcher from Armenia based in Yerevan. Her 18-year professional and academic research career is closely related to international relations, political science, and security policy topics within the Eastern Europe and Caucasus region overall.